Atlanta Falcons' coaching search is a challenge (2024)

In 2018, when injuries punched holes in the Falcons’ playoff hopes and too many able-bodied players just bagged it, coach Dan Quinn was given a pass. Owner Arthur Blank felt the team’s coach had built up enough credit points to earn the benefit of the doubt, and Blank believed Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff would “figure out the answers.”

One year later: same story. Same bad start. Same 7-9 record. Same show of faith from the owner, who chose to cling to the fool’s gold of a 6-2 second half, even while admitting to The Athletic: “There’s obviously risk. There’s no guarantee going into next year that we’ll be able to continue what we’ve generated in the second half of this year. But our judgment is the least amount of risk, and our best opportunity for success is staying the course.”

And then came an 0-5 start in 2020 and boom.

The point of this isn’t to remind everybody of Blank’s miscalculations. Even self-made billionaires whose heart is in the right place make mistakes. But with the Falcons making the decision to move on from Quinn and Dimitroff early in this 4-12 season, the question is whether they will pay some price for not making changes in previous offseasons as they now try to fill the two most important jobs in the organization.

This is of particular concern in the coaching search, because the well of candidates is not as deep as the one for potential general managers. Also, the team’s salary-cap constraints and the shared task of how to deal with a potential transition from the Matt Ryan- Julio Jones era, make this an unattractive job in the view of some, at least relative to other openings. The Athletic’s Tori McElhaney and Mike Lombardi, a former longtime NFL executive, and I had a spirited roundtable on this topic, which included Lombardi opining, “Repairing the Falcons will not be a quick fix, and hopefully, Blank and others understand.”

Lombardi also ranked the league’s six coaching openings and placed the Falcons dead last. Whether you agree with that ranking or not, it accurately illustrates the uncertainty many feel about the situation.

The Falcons are among six NFL general manager openings — it was seven until Houston’s hiring of New England’s Nick Caserio — and they have interviewed five candidates, led by Rick Smith, a long-time friend of team president Rich McKay who had a moderate level of success in Houston with four division titles in 12 seasons. The Falcons also have had remote interviews with at least four well-liked personnel executives — Brad Holmes (Los Angeles Rams), Terry Fontenot (New Orleans), Anthony Robinson (Falcons) and Morocco Brown (Indianapolis) — and have shown interest in Kansas City’s Ryan Poles. All six candidates are Black, which affirms Blank’s desire to have more diversity in the organization, as recently echoed by Warrick Dunn.

There’s more uncertainty about the quality of potential coaches. The Falcons have interviewed six, including interim coach Raheem Morris (who went 4-7 this season and 17-31 in his stint with Tampa Bay). They’ve also spoken to Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who almost certainly will get head coaching offers. Their fifth interview Wednesday was with Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady, a young (31) and really interesting candidate who largely was credited for LSU’s offense in the national championship season after two seasons working with the Saints’ Drew Brees. Their sixth came on Thursday with Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Others likely are coming.

I try not to pre-judge coaches. Few outside of NFL circles knew Mike Smith when the Falcons hired him, and he took them to four playoff berths in his first five seasons. Many expected years of success for Quinn after the Super Bowl run in his second season, but he made poor staffing decisions, struggled with in-game decisions and went 14-23 after 2017.

So back to the question: Did the Falcons blow their best chance to get the best possible coach by not firing Quinn earlier?

It depends on your view. There were 11 coaching changes after the 2018 and 2019 seasons. (See chart below.)

Two immediate successes have been Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur, who was the Falcons’ quarterback coach under Kyle Shanahan and is 26-6 with two NFC North Division titles in two seasons, and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski (11-5). Bruce Arians’ success with Tampa Bay (7-9, 11-5) logically improved when the Bucs swapped out Jameis Winston for Tom Brady. Miami’s Brian Flores was far better in his second season (10-6) than his first (5-11). But at least half the list hasn’t proven anything, yet.

LaFleur sparks the most debate in Atlanta. But Green Bay hired him after the 2018 season, when Blank’s position to not fire Quinn was reasonable, given it was the coach’s first losing season and injuries were a built-in excuse. Some are now upset the Falcons did not promote LaFleur to offensive coordinator when Shanahan went to San Francisco as the coach, but there’s a bit of revisionist history there. LaFleur never had called plays before, and the team did not believe he was ready. Yes, he accepted an offer from the Rams in 2017 as the “offensive coordinator,” but it was Sean McVay who called plays. And yes, LaFleur called plays for the first time in 2018 for Tennessee. But the Titans ranked 25th in total offense. Kudos to the Packers for recognizing his potential, but this level of success could not have been anticipated (and it helps to be working with a Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers).

The Falcons’ biggest failure in not making a change after the 2019 season was the decision by Dimitroff and Quinn to take one last desperate shot at a playoff run and in the process make signing decisions that created an even worse salary-cap situation for the future. But the coaching hire after last season probably would’ve been as big a challenge then as it is now.

(Photo of Matt LaFleur: Cary Edmondson / USA Today)